I went to bed a little after midnight on Tuesday. By then, It was clear that Kamala Harris had lost the election. While I might have been in bed, sleep was elusive. Disappointment did not come close to describing my mental state.
There were many reasons to vote for Kamala Harris and even more reasons not to vote for Donald Trump. My opinion has proven to be in the minority. In the wee hours of Wednesday morning, I mulled over the consequences of the outcome both personally and more broadly for the country.
While sleep was elusive, worse still, I had to go on Irish radio and give my take on the outcome. My Irish Stew Podcast co-host, John Lee, and our friend Shelley Anne Quilty-Lake had been invited to talk about our reactions to the election with Kieran Cuddihy of Ireland’s NewsTalk. Two days prior, we had talked with Kieran and expressed the belief that Kamala Harris would win the election. We had all been proven wrong. You can find a link to that post-election conversation here.
While I expressed disappointment with the outcome and gave my thoughts on the challenges facing the Trump administration, I thankfully was not asked for an explanation for why the Harris campaign had been defeated. In truth, this question cannot be easily answered without analysis and cannot be answered with certainty.
With the passage of a few days, I’m beginning to see the outline of an answer based on exit polls. Unsurprisingly, there is no unitary answer, but the old James Carville maxim continues to apply. Some may remember that Carville was Bill Clinton’s campaign manager in the 1992 election. His “It’s the economy stupid” rallying cry was a crucial message in the defeat of George Bush Senior. Some 32 years later, the same aphorism continues to apply. It’s increasingly clear that the cost of living concerns expressed by a struggling middle class was likely the driving consideration in the voting booth. Those struggles were attributed to the Biden administration, and as Vice President of that administration, Kamala Harris could not escape the negative repercussions of inflation. While inflation has moderated in the past year, the damage has been done. Costs spiked for many, and income has not kept track.
James Carville
Other considerations, such as reproductive rights, inclusion, and concerns over democracy, appealed to various constituencies; however, it seems that economic concerns outweighed almost everything else. There is much finger-pointing going on my losing side; the truth is the margin of victory in the popular vote is less than 3%. That margin has yielded the White House, the Senate, and likely the House of Representatives. Team GOP are trumpeting their crushing victory, but the margins are fragile and now the obligations of governance are bearing down. Will this 2nd Trump administration be more legislatively accomplished than its predecessor? We will wait and see.
